Rain likly to return in this week

Highlights of the last week

 • Monsoon trough at mean sea level remained north of its normal position throughout the week. As a result, week monsoon conditions prevailed over most parts of northwest India and adjoining central India.

• Active to vigorous monsoon conditions prevailed over many parts of north eastern states & adjoining east India and south Peninsula.

 Rainfall during the week (12- 18 July)

 Compared to last week, rainfall scenario has significantly improved over east & northeast India and also over south Peninsula.

 

Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, rainfall was excess/normal in 14 (mainly over north eastern states & adjoining east India and south Peninsula) deficient in 16 and scanty in 06 sub-divisions (mainly in northwest and central India) during the week. In area-wise distribution, 32% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. Remaining 68% area received deficient/scanty rainfall.  Meteorological sub-division wise rainfall for the week is given in Annexure I.

 Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (1 June -18 July)

 For the country as a whole, seasonal rainfall during this year’s monsoon has so far upto 18 July been 22% below the LPA, same as that by the end of last week.

Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess/normal over 11, deficient in 22 and scanty in 03 sub-divisions (Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi andSaurashtra & Kutch). In area-wise distribution, 24% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. Remaining 76% area received deficient/scanty rainfall.  Meteorological sub-division wise seasonal rainfall is given in Annexure II.

Meteorological Analysis

• Today a low pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Odisha and West Bengal. It would move westnorth westwards across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
• The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level has shifted southwards and it would remain slightly south of its normal position throughout the week.
• An off shore trough at mean sea level runs from Konkan coast to Karnataka coast.
• Analysis of meteorological conditions suggests likely formation of a fresh upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal around 26 July.

Forecast for next one week (21 – 27 July)

• Rainfall would occur at many places over east and central India on many days of the week.
• Rainfall would occur at many places along the west coast and at a few places over interior south Peninsula.
• Intensity of rainfall would decrease over north eastern states. However light to moderate rainfall would occur at a few places during next two days and at many places thereafter.
• Rainfall would be subdued over plains of northwest India during first half of the week. However it would increase during the second half.
• Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are expected mainly over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, on some days of the week and on one or two days over Odisha and Chhattisgarh.